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Antarctica is a cold, inhospitable place, with average winter temperatures of minus 56 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 49 degrees Celsius), winds of up to 200 miles per hour (321 kilometers per hour), and precipitation of only 6.5 inches (166 millimeters) per hour. ) It rains. year. It should come as no surprise that Earth's southernmost continent is also the least populated, with only a few scientists conducting research and no permanent residents.
Could that ever change, given technological advances and a changing climate? Will Antarctica ever support permanent human settlements like those seen elsewhere on Earth?
Although some invasive plant and animal species are already migrating to warming Antarctica, humans aren't on the list yet, and won't be for at least another century.
Partly because the current climate and terrain do not support a diverse range of biodiversity for crops or food animals.
Another obstacle is the remoteness of Antarctica. Although the environment is harsh, it is not dissimilar from places in the Arctic that support permanent residents, such as Greenland, Iceland, and the higher latitude regions of Norway, Russia, Canada, and Alaska in the United States. According to Steven Chown (opens in new tab), professor of biological sciences at Monash University in Australia, if the only issue was the weather, people might have a chance in the long run. Due to their geographic isolation, these facilities could only be maintained by importing food and other goods.
Renewable energy from wind turbines and solar panels is currently used to power some, but not all, of the research stations. Building a power grid across the continent would require crossing an ice sheet, which is subject to change as a result of global warming. According to Julie Brigham-Grete (opens in new tab), Professor of Quaternary/Glacial Geology and Arctic Paleoenvironment at the University of Massachusetts, there would be no need for a power grid if all the stations there used primarily solar and wind, Going further, battery technology can be used to last through the dark months of winter.
Climate of Antarctica: the distant past and the near future.
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Right now, the frozen continent may not be ready for permanent residents. But, given the warming of the planet, was the climate ever hospitable, and will it remain so in the future?
"According to the fossil record, it used to have a climate that was ideal for forests and dinosaurs," Chown explained to Live Science. About 100 million years ago, Antarctica had well-developed vegetation, extensive forests, and a diverse range of fauna, including conifers, ferns, and flowering plants known as angiosperms. Charcoal remains discovered in 2021 on James Ross Island off the Antarctic Peninsula beneath South America provided evidence that wildfires burned forests between 100 million and 66 million years ago.
Over hundreds of millions of years, Earth's climate cycles between cold glacial periods and warm interglacial periods. Paleo climatologists study the past to predict what the climate of Antarctica will be like in the future. A team of researchers, including Brigham-Grate, found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed and grew again several times by studying sediment layers in the Ross Ice Shelf. According to Brigham-Grate, such collapse and regrowth are most likely associated with extremely warm interglacial periods, and these climatic fluctuations are associated with changes in the Earth's atmosphere, including rising and falling carbon dioxide levels.
Although these changes occurred hundreds of thousands of years in the past, greenhouse gas emissions are now changing Earth's climate at an unprecedented rate. According to Chown, if we don't achieve net-zero emissions by 2040, climate change will be "the biggest driver of change in the Antarctic". Chown suggests looking at the ecology of sub-Antarctic islands and southern parts of South America to visualize an environment where temperatures continue to rise.
The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the highest latitude, or northernmost, parts of the continent, which extends from the Antarctic Circle towards South America. Ushuaia in Argentina is only 680 miles (1,095 km) away. As global average temperatures rise, the climate will change on the Antarctic Peninsula, which resembles southern parts of South America or islands in nearby oceans, according to Chown.
Native grasses, some insects, migratory birds and marine mammals currently exist on the Antarctic Peninsula. According to Chown, with a warming climate, we can expect to see greater diversity in grasses and flowers. According to Chown, if this trend continues, higher temperatures and increased precipitation will encourage plant growth in the near future. More plants, in addition to invasive species accidentally introduced there by humans, can establish themselves. However, due to the cold temperatures, we are unlikely to see forests there anytime soon. Chown and Brigham-Grate agreed that crops and livestock are unlikely to thrive in Antarctica in the next century. Overall, we are unlikely to be able to establish permanent human settlements there that are supported by agriculture or livestock in the near future.
However, the Antarctic climate is already changing. According to Chown, the rise in average global temperature is changing the continent's ecology. According to him, Poa annua, native to temperate cities such as Cape Town, South Africa and Melbourne, Australia, has been discovered in Antarctica. Even the discovery of a gentoo penguin colony in Antarctica as early as 2022 is cause for concern, as these non-ice-loving birds typically live on sub-Antarctic islands and are likely only moving south because Climate change is warming the southern continent.
Ice sheets that are melting in Antarctica.
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With the exception of the peninsula, most of the continent is an ice sheet, several kilometers thick in places. Climate modeling predicts a significant increase in the ice-free zone. However, according to Chown, "in the highest regions where only mountain peaks are sticking out ... we are unlikely to see anything change until 2100."
The melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the resulting sea level rise will change not only the geography of Antarctica but also the climate of our entire planet. "Much of West Antarctica is below sea level," but rising sea levels will lift small rocky islands rather than completely submerge them.
"As the ice shelves melt in the future, one issue will be keeping settlements above sea level," Brigham-Grette said.
Rising temperatures and sea levels are expected to accelerate migration of climate refugees after 2100. If the cold climate of the Antarctic turns out to be more hospitable than warmer parts of the world, people may try to colonize it. Even if no crops are grown, melting sea ice may encourage people to fish in the area.
Despite our efforts to explore and study Earth's harshest, most inhospitable continent, Antarctica is not likely to appear any time soon.
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